Michael Crawford

Barack Obama Wins Iowa!

Filed By Michael Crawford | January 03, 2008 11:10 PM | comments

Filed in: Politics
Tags: Barack Obama, campaign 2008, Democrat primaries, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iowa caucuses, John Edwards

CNN is reporting that Barack Obama has won the Iowa caucuses with 37% of the vote. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are in a neck and neck battle for second place.

Just over half of Democratic caucus goers said change was the number one factor they were looking for in a candidate, and 51 percent of those voters chose Barack Obama. That compares to only 19 percent of "change" caucus goers who preferred Clinton.


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Bruce Parker Bruce Parker | January 3, 2008 11:18 PM

Your post is better than mine with your quote box and video, Mr. Michael. I will settle for feeling okay that I beat you by like twenty minutes. Happy Caucus night.

Michael Crawford Michael Crawford | January 3, 2008 11:25 PM

Ah, Bruce, we are all in this together. The primaries are not over. This just the beginning.

What is clear is that no matter who the Democratic nominee is we must support him or her in defeating whatever Republicans wins the GOP nomination.


Did you see Obama's speech? If not, run to MSNBC and watch it right now. He didn't even mention any of us (not that it really truly mattered), but it was one the best political speeches I think I've ever heard.

Michael Crawford Michael Crawford | January 4, 2008 8:50 AM

You are right Rebecca. The speech was amazing. That is what a president looks and sounds like. You can watch Obama's Iowa victory speech here.

This was a great way to wake up this morning.

I gotta say . . . the fact that Hillary didn't even finish close to Obama makes me wonder. She's been polling strong nationally. And I'm curious if people will say in public that they would vote for a woman, but then when they get to the privacy of the polls (not that the Iowa caucus is private), if they're really a little less willing to pull the lever for a woman.

Oh yeah . . . have I mentioned that the word caucus makes me giggle? Alex, you know what I'm talkin' about.

Congratulations to Barack. I'm happy that Edwards topped Hillary though. I'm starting to lean his way. I wonder if that'll knock him out of the running - every time I support a candidate in the presidential elections they end up losing! Gore, Kerry, etc...

Marla R. Stevens | January 4, 2008 10:44 PM

Obama capitalized on the astounding turnout -- and was responsible for a sizeable amount of it to the credit of his team.

Turnout -- especially among the crossovers and Iowa's higher-than-average number of independents -- is the big story, though, and it goes hand-in-glove with the change angle. Perhaps the most interesting figure is Huckabee's eleven percent share of the attendees -- lower than Obama, Edwards, or Clinton's shares. Clearly, the populous has had enough.

There's another notable bit of data: Sen. HRC has not shown yet that she's lost the traditional percentage of super delegates that a candidate who does not retain an earlier lead usually loses immediately following the Iowa caucuses.

It must be remembered that this was just the caucus that chooses delegates to the county caucuses that choose delegates to the state one, where the actual convention delegates that most people vote for in primary elections are chosen.

Because of the changes in the percentages wrought by the winnowing that happens at each level as a result of realignments that happen as threshholds are not met, the actual difference in projected final delegate counts between Obama and Edwards and Edwards and Clinton will be one or, at most two -- hardly enough to offset Sen. HRC's massive lead over Obama and more than double that over Edwards in the superdelegate count.

This is where the biggest battle between the forces for change and those with the biggest stake in maintaining the (largely DLC) Dem party status quo could well lie -- and it's still quite the horserace.