My friend Steven Goldstein from Garden State Equality e-mailed me this great question a short while ago. I asked him if I could share it with all of you and get your thoughts. This has to be one of the most intriguing e-mail threads to be on, and I'm really looking forward to all of your opinions too.
"Taking off the hat of whom I support for President, and just as a political junkie, I see three possible scenarios.
Here’s my question. Regardless of whom you support – try to be objective LOL – give percentages to each of the below scenarios, with the three scenarios totaling 100 percent."
Of course, the "and why" is understood. Possible scenarios after the jump.
- Possibility #1. Hillary Clinton has a decisive win in popular vote and delegates. Barack Obama’s surge fell short. He needed a few more days. This gives Clinton almost unstoppable momentum toward the nomination.
- Possibility #2. Clinton and Obama split the popular vote and delegates, perhaps Clinton’s winning a bit more, i.e. 52-48 percent factoring out others still on the ballot. But Obama wins a big state or two like California and comes close in several other states. Obama thus wins the game of expectations. This gives Obama a decent amount of momentum. Not unstoppable but he’s the clear frontrunner.
- Possibility #3. In a phenomenon that polls presaged but couldn’t fully capture because Obama’s surge was so rapid, including within the last 24 hours, Obama wins the night decisively and beyond what any poll or pundit had predicted. This gives Obama almost unstoppable momentum toward the nomination.
As many of you know, I've decided to support Barack. Laying that aside, I'd have to go with:
45% - 35% - 20%
I'll save the why's for the comment section after a few of you have answered too. *grins*