Bil Browning

A heaping helping of crow

Filed By Bil Browning | August 06, 2008 6:00 PM | comments

Filed in: Politics
Tags: Barack Obama, election 2008, Evan Bayh, vice president, VP

Well, you win some and you lose some. I lost. My parents always told me, "If you're going to do it, do it big." I did and I lost. Someone pass me a plate, I've got some crow to eat.

tealeaves.jpgBarack Obama did not choose Evan Bayh as his VP and announce it today in Indiana.

I was wrong.

But at least everyone else had fun running with the story and guessing themselves. Interest is high; the speculation continues.

Since I was wrong, who do you think it will be? And when do you think Obama will make the announcement? I still think it will be Bayh, I was just wrong on my timing.

(Image courtesy of Paul Volker)


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My best bet is Gov.Richardson ahh the Game is afoot !

As to when hmm nothing wrong in upstaging GW at the Olympics now is there.

I still think Sebelius is the best bet, but my roommate is convinced that Wesley Clark would put an end to all the complaints about Obama's foreign policy experience which she pegs as his biggest weakness.

General Clark has zero political clout so no on the VP job but he would be great as Homeland Security or Department of Defense. Also the fact he was fired as NATO commander will come back to haunt him. Relived early of command is military speak for "Your Fired!”. But look for the General to be in a Senator Obama Presidency NSA is also a good job for him as well as CIA.

As much as I think Clark would actually be a good VP, the right wingnuts have it in for him almost as much as they do Hilary, so he (sadly) would be a drag on the ticket.

As much as I'd like to see Sebelius, I'm guessing that those in the campaign who do the calculating will see Webb being more likely to be able to push Virginia into Obama's column than Sebelius would Kansas.

Tim Kaine, VA. Second week of the olympics. Early in the week, Monday or Tuesday.

Want fries with that?

I still like Ed Rendell. A Jewish running mate really helps Obama and could offset Lieberman's sway in Florida. Rendell is a real pro when it comes to politics. He could be a merciless pit bull.

Kaine blundered his way out of contention. Richardson looks too much like quid pro quo. As a NYer I am very fond of Hillary but that's a match made in hell. Webb does more good as a Senator.

My sources tell me it will certainly not be Evan Bayh.

Moreover the Vice Presidential announcement will be "leaked" just as the Olympics are closing and will be confirmed right before the call to order is graveled for the Democratic National Convention.

Gaveled* not graveled - lol damn FireFox 3 spellchecker. - we now return to our regularly scheduled blogging, already in progress....

Obama should wait until the convention to announce his nominee, in order to focus national attention on the convention. Leave a little suspense, in other words.

Is Kathleen Sebelius more useful as the 2010 successor to Sam Brownback, than she is as veep? I think so. Good question.

Bayh won't be the nominee - it would be a loss of a Senate seat. The Dems will need all of those they can get.

Tim Kaine's a complete unknown outside of Virginia - he doesn't help Obama win nationally, although delivering Virginia would be nice. Webb would do that job better, but he is needed in the Senate.

Wesley Clark is a great possibility - he fills in the gaps in Obama's experience, and would blunt the appeal of McPain among military families.

Sam Nunn is too old. Same with Bob Graham, although the idea of the former Florida gov/senator making sure McPain doesn't take FL, is attractive.

Here's an outsider for you: Tom Vilsack of Iowa.

Which brings us to Bill Richardson. Hillary Clinton. John Edwards.
Obvious possibilities. Yes, Hillary is polarizing - but wouldn't the people who can't stand her be GOP supporters, anyway? If Obama's standard is "who's best suited to be President in my absence?", he has to think hard about Clinton. Edwards is a true liberal, is from the South, and has the wholehearted support of organized labor.

If I were selecting, I would pick Richardson. He's absolutely ready for the top job. Has strong foreign policy chops. Is well known on the Hill. Has held Cabinet posts, and was Governor of NM, so has managerial experience. He has it all, especially clear competency, He also could turn several states in the Mountain West.

Contrast that with the GOP dilemma, where the veep will have to be a Religious Reicher and war hawk first, will have to be simon-pure ideologically, will have to be young, cannot have worked for the Bush Administration, and experience be damned. Raise your hand if you really think Charlie Crist, Mike Huckabee, or Bobby Jindal is prepared to be POTUS? Didn't think so...... Got a possible long shot on that one: Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who drools over the idea of having the top job, is friendly with McPain, and who is even-money to lose his Senate seat to Bruce Lunsford this November. If he gets the job, he'll need a box, as he'd be the shortest veep in years.

Personally, I'd like to see Richardson get the nod. I supported him in the primary until he dropped out. I think he has the expertise needed, but I'm hearing rumors that he might have some womanizing in his past that'll hold him back. Of course, that's nothing but common gossipmongering and I hope it's not true. I think Richardson would be ready on day one to POTUS.

Don Sherfick Don Sherfick | August 7, 2008 7:40 AM

A party crossover still isn't out of the question. The conventional wisdom has suggested Chuck Hagel, but I think Larry Craig might still be tapped. The only question is whether or not this time he'll tap back.

I am pleasantly surprised by some of the other comments also mentioning Governor Sebelius of Kansas. I thought her Democratic response to the State of the Union address was simply brilliant.

While I could easily support Governor Richardson's selection as VP, I think he will be our next Secretary of State.

Senator Biden would also be a good choice because of his extensive experience in foreign policy issues.

I think the idea of an Obama/Ricardson ticket sounds wonderful, but I also think it would be a very, very tough sell to much of the nation.

If you thought the race-baiting around Obama's candidacy has been bad, my experience has been that people are even more open about anti-Hispanic sentiment. Regardless of actual positions or plans, there would be a surge of right-wing fear-mongering about open borders, losing American jobs, people speaking Spanish in schools and government agencies, and good old-fashioned stereotyping. Can't you just see the editorial cartoons featuring Obama in Muslim garb and Rchardson dancing around a sombrero?

Again, I think Obama/Richardson 2008 would be awesome, but I'm not sure my liberal heart can take much more evidence of just how racist our country remains.

I still think there is a very real possibility it is Bayh. I'd love to see Wes Clark, but I think I'd almost rather see Wes at DoD than in the White House at this point. We need a smart, battle-tested General who can really understand what it's going to take to get us out of Iraq.

I think the least likely is Clinton or Edwards. Clinton for obvious reasons and Edwards because he's got a bit of a taint after the "bastard child" allegations.

Colin Powell - bank on it. Will provide a stamp of approval for Obama's foreign policy plans by a widely respected voice, and will dampen the ability of mainstream conservatives to make an issue of Obama's background/race unless they are willing to also denigrate Powell. Will lend a bi-partisan profile without taking an actual republican lawmaker.

Will also let it leak that Powell will only serve for one term and will have no aspirations for seeking the Presidency himself, allowing Obama to pick Mark Warner, fresh of four years in the US senate and a former southern governor for VP for the second term and heir apparent for the presidency in 2016.

Well, since everyone else is weighing in on this, I will add my punditry.

1. There is no way on God's Green Earth that there will be two black men on a single national ticket. Ever. So you can't take Powell to the bank.

2. Wes Clark said some amazingly stupid things some weeks back, and then after the entire world called him on it, he stood by his original statement. That ended whatever chance he had of being on the ticket. The good news is that he had virtually no chance of being on the ticket before he stuck his foot in his mouth.

3. Richardson was a terrible campaigner in the primaries, and performed very badly in the debates. I'm pretty sure Obama noticed that. But the clincher is that Bill Clinton is *so* *furious* with Richardson for endorsing Obama, that it would be a serious "fuck you" to the Clinton camp if he were put on the ticket. Obama can't afford to wave the proverbial red cape.

4. Similarly, picking any other woman other than Hillary would be massively insulting and therefore, self-defeating. Further, I don't think Sebelius can carry Kansas, so there would really be no point.

5. I really think Biden is going to Secretary of State. I could be wrong, and he could well be tapped. He was my first choice in the primaries. But as a veep selection, he really seems kinda boring. And I think Obama can pick up Delaware's three electoral votes on his own. ;-)

6. There is no way on God's Green Earth that Obama will pick Hagel as his running mate. Remember what I said about Powell? He'd be on the ticket *before* Hagel. An anti-choice Republican would utterly fracture the party. In fact, I believe that the convention would refuse to nominate him.

7. I don't think Obama would pick an anti-abortion Democrat, either; thereby eliminating Kaine. I also think it would be stupid to pick someone with so little governing experience, and zero national experience.

8. Bayh is possible but boring. However, I think it's bad form to pass over your own supporters to choose someone who endorsed your opponent. What's the point of sticking your neck out for someone if it doesn't get you any consideration. Also, if Indiana has a Republican governor, it would be just plain stupid to give away a Senate seat.

9. I'm a fan of Ed Rendell, and thought he would have been an excellent running mate for Hillary, if she had gotten that far. But he also didn't endorse Obama in the primaries. And sometimes he has a little foot-in-mouth disease.

10. I think Webb is a **superb** choice. But he has issued an absolutely Shermanesque statement that he won't do it. It would be hard to explain that away. Plus I think unlike many politicians, he actually means it.

11. I think Hillary would be the best choice because I think she would best help him get elected, and could be president on day one. I know she's been written off by every Talking Head in Washington - which is now my top reason for wanting him to pick her. Just the thought of all those Bozos having to explain how they could be so wrong makes me tingly all over.