Internal polling released by the No campaign today (performed by Lake Research Partners) also shows that the gays are behind in a poll of likely voters, 47-43. The poll was conducted last week.
The fundraising numbers are favoring the Yes side; so far, they've raised $19.7M and the No campaign has raised $15.3M. The No campaign estimates that 40% of the money is coming from the LDS Church and members.
I just got off a conference call with the No campaign and they're stuck on the Yes campaign's recent ad featuring Gavin Newsom. That ad and more on the polling after the jump.
It's not common for a political campaign to release data that shows that they're losing. They don't want to be perceived, generally, as ineffective because people don't like to vote for a losing side. Just check out how Congressional candidate Mark Kirk just freaked out yesterday over polling data that shows his lead diminishing.
But the No campaign says that they're worried about complacency in the LGBT community. "We're going to lose this election if we do not raise the money we need to get on the airwaves," said Equality California executive director Geoff Kors. "The community is very complacent and thinks we're just going to win and that's it."
Less recent polling showed the ballot was losing support among Californians, but that polling was performed before ad buys had started.
As for the young voters, Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners said that they're more likely to be affected by advertising and they could easily switch back into the "no" column.
The campaign says they're trying to raise $10M before the election and has more ads planned, particularly around pointing out the inaccuracies in the above ad. The bulk of their spending is going to be for TV ad buys.