Well, it looks like it's going to be happening in 2010:
A straw poll of same-sex marriage leaders gathered in San Bernadino Saturday just came in: The majority want to return to the ballot in 2010 to try to overturn Proposition 8. Final count of the non-binding measure: 93 people voted to go in 2010, 49 in 2012 and 20 undecided.
The next step: Leaders will return to their organizations and then a final decision will be made in a couple of weeks. If they're going to go for it in 2010, they'd better hurry. Ballot language is due to the Attorney General by Sept. 25.
Oh, that won't be rushed at all.
The big money A-gays are already saying they won't back a 2010 referendum:
But the timing of another campaign has since been questioned by several of the movement's big donors, including David Bohnett, a millionaire philanthropist and technology entrepreneur who gave more than $1 million to the unsuccessful campaign to defeat Proposition 8.
"In conversations with a number of my fellow major No on 8 donors," Mr. Bohnett said in an e-mail message, "I find that they share my sentiment: namely, that we will step up to the plate -- with resources and talent -- when the time is right."
"The only thing worse than losing in 2008," he added, "would be to lose again in 2010."[...]
Other donors have also expressed trepidation. Leonie Walker and her partner, Kate O'Hanlan, run a laparoscopic surgery practice in Portola Valley, Calif., and donated more than $100,000 to fight Proposition 8. Ms. Walker said she and Ms. O'Hanlan had "no regrets" about their 2008 donations, but would hope for a better result if they were to give money to another campaign.
"I don't know that you could convince us right now that 2010 is a good investment," Ms. Walker said. "I wish it wasn't so, but that's just how it is right now."
The Task Force, which provided lots of staff and money for the 2008 campaign, has also stated their opposition to going forward in 2010.
A ballot battle in 2010 would likely raise much less money than the $40-odd million raised in 2008, for a variety of reasons. Donors have already been tapped, the economy is doing worse, it isn't playing defense, and there's much less confidence in their ability to win. Even so, I could see such a fight taking away resources from Maine, which will also have a ballot initiative to take away same-sex marriage in 2010, in much the same way as California drained resources from the fight in 2008 in Arizona.
The poll numbers just aren't moving, and it's unlikely that they'll be there by next November:
Marc Solomon, marriage director for Equality California, said he spent June and early July asking the opinions of nearly two dozen California political consultants and pollsters and had been surprised by the almost unanimous opinion that a 2010 race was a bad idea.
"I expected having watched the protests and the real pain that the L.G.B.T. community had experienced that there would be some real measurable remorse in the electorate," Mr. Solomon said, referring to lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. "But if you look at the poll numbers since November, they really haven't moved at all."[...]
Opponents of the 2010 campaign say that window is simply too small to change the opinions of enough voters to win, including groups in which Proposition 8 was popular, like African-Americans, religious conservatives and the elderly.
"What we've learned is that yes, you can change hearts and minds, but it takes time, focused energy, and money," said Matt Foreman, the program director of the Evelyn and Walter Haas Jr. Fund, a frequent donor to gay rights causes. "And once a measure is on the ballot and the campaign begins, its almost impossible to change anyone's mind, because people are being bombarded with lies."
The protests were fun and all, but, as Solomon found out, they didn't do a good job of changing people's opinions on the issue. Seeing "real pain" from a group of people that, frankly, the population at large doesn't care about isn't enough to get them to realize the error of their ways.
Either way, there's nothing that opponents can do to prevent them from going forward in 2010, so I'd expect to see it happen.