Bil Browning

Election Day Predictions & Open Thread

Filed By Bil Browning | November 02, 2010 10:30 AM | comments

Filed in: Politics
Tags: 2010 Election, Election Day, open thread

It's that time again. Get out and vote people. Every time a teabagger wins, God kills a kitten! All you have to do is remember, it may not be perfect yet but no one ever promised you "perfect." As with all things politics, it's a long hard slog to actually create change. Remember what it was like before 2008...

After the jump are my predictions for the race. Feel free to tell me whether you agree or disagree or make your own predictions in the comments. Consider this your Election Day open thread.

In the Senate

Republicans will pick up 7 seats. Democrats keep control of the Senate.

Notable races:
Alaska - McAdams vs Miller vs Murkowski: McAdams wins (Democrat victory)
California - Boxer vs Fiorina: Boxer wins (Democrat victory)
Delaware - Coons vs O'Donnell: Coons wins (Democrat victory)
Florida - Meeks vs Rubio vs Crist: Rubio wins (Republican victory)
Illinois - Giannoulias vs Kirk: Kirk wins (Republican victory)
Indiana - Ellsworth vs Coats: Coats wins (Republican victory)
Kentucky - Conway vs Paul: Paul wins (Republican victory)
Nevada - Reid vs Angle: Reid wins (Democrat victory)
Pennsylvania - Sestak vs Toomey: Toomey wins (Republican victory)
Wisconsin - Feingold vs Johnson: Johnson wins (Republican victory)

In the House

Republicans will pick up 48 seats. Republicans gain control of the House.

Notable races:
Arizona - Hulburd vs Quayle: Quayle wins (Republican victory)
California - Pougnette vs Bono Mack: Pougnette wins (Democrat victory)
California - Pelosi vs Dennis: Pelosi wins (Democrat victory)
Colorado - Polis vs Bailey: Polis wins (Democrat victory)
Indiana - Hill vs Young: Hill wins (Democrat victory)
Indiana - Donnelly vs Walorski: Walorski wins (Republican victory)
Massachusetts - Frank vs Bielat: Frank wins (Democrat victory)
New Jersey - Potosnak vs Lance: Lance wins (Republican victory)
New Jersey - Holt vs Sipprelle: Holt wins (Democrat victory)
Pennsylvania - Murphy vs Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick wins (Republican victory)
Rhode Island - Cicilline vs Loughlin: Cicilline wins (Democrat victory)
Wisconsin - Baldwin vs Lee: Baldwin wins (Democrat victory)


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Aubrey Haltom | November 2, 2010 10:48 AM

Bil,

Your predictions seem to be a little on the overly optimistic side.

Do you really think McAdams will win in Alaska? Perhaps the best we can hope for is a Murkowski win (will Alaska voters write in that name?)

And I wonder about the Reid pick as well. I'd be interested in hearing why you think these 2 will win.

You're probably right about Feingold. Which is a real disappointment. I thought Feingold represented Wisconsin well, it's a shame to lose him to this political climate.

RE: the house.

Do you really see Bono Mack losing?

Also, sad about Murphy.

It's going to be a tough few years.

Whatever Obama and the Dems have and/or haven't done, their political skills these past 20 months leave much to be desired.

I'm concerned Obama could turn out to be another Jimmy Carter. And the aftermath will be another Reagan/Bush (or the 21st C version).

Optimistic? Yes. But everyone knows I'm not a cynic. *snickers*

McAdams - yes. I think Murkowski and Miller will split the vote letting him coast to victory a la Bill Clinton.

Reid - I think the polling is wrong and didn't aptly capture the Hispanic vote that will turn out for him as payback for all of the anti-Hispanic ads that Angle has been airing over and over again.

Bono Mack - I'll admit I'm being overly optimistic and will probably be proven wrong on this one. I'm holding out hope though because I really like the guy.

Which would leave Alaska with 2 Democratic Senators...

Paige Listerud | November 2, 2010 11:13 AM

OMG! A political ad that finally names the class war in effect since The Reagan Revolution. I never thought I'd see the day liberal Dems would have the balls to say it. Maybe they are finally seeing the writing on the wall: Centrism Is Dead.

Puleeze. These are the Democrats we're talking about. They'll think it should tell them to be more centrist instead of actually tacking to the left.

Republicans will own the House 245-190.

In the Senate it will be 49-49 (and the two Independents). But of more importance is the number of LGBT-supportive Senators will drop from 56 to 52 or 53. In the last two years the LGBT Community LOST support in the US Senate.

Republican Senators will join with the 5-7 Conservative Democrats and they'll govern from the Right. Democrats will filibuster. More grid-lock or more negotiation to mediocrity (Healthcare).

The necessary "60 votes" to pass anything LGBT-related will remain impossible.

What's the PLAN to make a difference in 2012? More lobbying and protesting? Same old tactics?

I hope this is a wake-up call for the LGBT community. We cannot continue to repeat the Past with tired old tactics and the lack of a cohesive, verifiable strategy. We must embrace accountability or it's 1994 all over again.

Well having just voted here in Indiana I can assure you the mood at the polls was predominantly Republican. It's also the first time I ever had an issue with a machine. I even had to call my election board.

R L Pete Housman | November 2, 2010 5:10 PM

We will have some hard work to do and much of it will have to occur inside the LGBTQ community.

But much of this can not and will not happen until we play out the last act of the tragic/comedy
year 2010. We must play our parts to the end. Perhaps we will yet score some victory.

If not WE continue the fight again. The Goal of fully recognized EQUALITY is worth the effort.

Here in Georgia it's the govenors race that is the important one.Now if the 3 way govenors race turns out any thing like the last round of polls look for a runoff between exGovenor Barnes(D)and exCongressman Deal(R).

Look for no change in the Senate and there are at least 2 house seats that are even close the 2nd district and the 8th.These two races were a tie for all practical reasons as of yesterday.

Cathy
Politics is a contact sport with no rules.

Why do I feel as if I'm stuck in "Night of the Living Dead?" :-

Um... could it be the "there coming to get you..." line? :)

Speaking of "Night of the Living Dead" ... Harry Reid has just been called winner in Nevada.

See, all you atheists ... there is a God after all! And He even comes to the rescue of zombies like Harry Reid!

I feel somewhat ill. I know my vote and the vote of those I hauled to vote that otherwise did not have a ride to do so, was basically cast in a loosing effort. I take this much away from these results however. That the results the Republicans got was due to the Economy, Unemployment and the run away debt of the Federal Government along with States that had job and budget issues as well. If they take this to be also a mandate to repeal Civil Rights gains in the last 20 months however small they have been, they may well find themselves back in the minority come the next election. So I offer this to the Republicans elected. Concern yourselves with fixing the job market, economy and slow down the debt. Do not take it as a signal the country wishes to go back to the days before the "New Deal" when the term freedom only applied to those who also were white, male, and heterosexual with mainstream religious beliefs. So to barrow a term used by a few going into this election, "it's the economy stupid". Fix it and try not to rub it in everyones face that they generally think of themselves as the elite ruling class when they get into office.

Some of the Democrats who were on my ballot attend churches which are anti-Gay.

After doing alot of soul searching, I vote for all the Democrats on my ballot.